By Edward A. Sanchez — Nov. 3, 2023

In episode 143 of The Watt Car EV Podcast, I made the comment that I thought the HD truck segment would probably be the last to fully electrify. I truly believe that. Simply put, there are specific constraints, limitations, and use cases for that segment that will present a difficult (but not entirely insurmountable) challenge to full electrification. I added that I believed the Class 8 truck segment would probably electrify before HD pickups would. I stand by that assertion. Below, I unpack some of my hypotheses:

HD Pickups Are Space-Constrained, But Not Task-Constrained
HD pickups are in an odd in-between space where they’re not much physically larger than half-ton trucks, yet often have considerably higher payload and towing ratings. A half-ton truck may have a tow rating of 13,000 pounds, and an HD model maybe only a few inches longer and wider has a tow rating of 30,000 pounds. You’re more than doubling the towing load without a proportionate increase in space or capacity for larger battery packs.

Half-ton EV trucks like the Cybertruck face a rough road, with large batteries required for a decent towing range — but those batteries come with a significant weight and price penalty. (Image courtesy Tesla)

Even factoring in a 200+ kWh pack enabling an unladen range of 400-500 miles in a “half-ton” (more on that later) truck, that’s effectively cut in half with a towing load. Doubling that again, and you’re barely over 100 miles of range. A distance that’s only practical for around-town deliveries or tows. Many HD pickup drivers have long-distance, time-sensitive routes and deliveries. Until battery technology and recharging times massively improve, fully electric HD pickups are a non-starter for many.

Class 8 Trucks Are Bigger
The above statement may seem like a “duh” assertion, but let me explain why this is significant. The difference in size between HD pickups and Class 8 allows the semi-trucks to have significantly larger battery packs than would be possible in a pickup. By most estimations, the Tesla Semi is packing a 500-kWh battery pack, possibly larger. A 1,000-kWh battery is not out of the question for future long-range variants of the Tesla Semi or other EV Class 8 trucks. Yes, it’s true these massive battery packs take a toll on the trailer capacity relative to diesel trucks, but when you’re getting into the 80,000+ pound range, it’s a somewhat trivial trade-off. A 350-400 kWh pack in an HD pickup would be massively heavy relative to overall vehicle weight, and would have a domino effect on all the other components on the truck to compensate for that weight, having the unintended (and undesirable) consequence of reducing payload and towing capacity.

Simply put, Class 8 trucks are better suited to accommodating larger and heavier batteries.

Electrified Class 8 trucks, like this one from Nikola, face less of an uphill battle than EV half-ton pickups when it comes to range, largely due to the size of the vehicle better accommodating larger batteries. (Image courtesy Nikola)

HD Pickups Are More Cost Sensitive
HD pickups also occupy an odd in-between space between commercial and personal-use vehicles, in many cases, serving both use cases. Top-of-the-line HD models can easily crest the six-figure mark in – for some buyers, that’s a non-issue. But a four-figure monthly payment is off the table for a majority of buyers.

With the exception of independent operators, most trucks are purchased by larger companies in which the $250,000-300,000+ cost can be absorbed or amortized more easily. Also, fleet managers are generally much more interested in the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) equation than a personal use buyer, and are willing to overlook a higher initial purchase cost if significant cost savings will be realized over the life of the vehicle.

Trying to pitch the fuel/cost savings to an individual buyer when asking for the equivalent of a mortgage payment in many parts of the country is a tall ask for HD pickup buyers.

The Cost-Benefit Equation Is More Favorable for Class 8 Trucks
Circling back to the above point, considering the 15-20 year, 400,000+ mile lifespan of a Class 8 truck, the up-front cost is much easier to justify if six-figure cost savings relative to a diesel truck can be realized over its lifetime.

Fully electrified HD pickups would have a nominal benefit over their “half-ton” equivalents, which almost seems laughable, considering the 6,500-8,500 curb weight of current full-size EV trucks. At a certain point, a larger battery pack starts tilting the cost/benefit equation to the negative, in adding more weight without adding a proportionate increase in capabilities. Considering the long distances and time-sensitive nature of the use case of many HD pickups (auto transport, livestock, etc.) many of these trucks have, the added time needed for DC fast charging, relative to topping of diesel (or natural gas, or hydrogen) is not worth it.

What Future HD Pickups Might Look Like
I am not saying there will be no fully electric HD pickups. There will certainly be some. But internal combustion (or at least fuel cell) powertrains will be around for a long time to come. Within the next 15-20 years, I expect we will see more diesel-hybrids, PHEVs, and fuel cell models offered in the HD pickup space. In the 3/4-ton segment, we may see fully electric models, possibly offered with a megawatt charging option (either MCS or Nxu, possibly) in addition to NACS. These will be more of the personal-use models for recreation or lighter-duty applications relative to the F-350/450 and 3500/4500 models.

I would not be at all shocked to see an F-350 “PowerCharge” PHEV combining a slightly downsized diesel engine (perhaps around 4.5-5.5 liters) with an electric motor, with a combined output in the 650-700 hp, 1,300-1,500 lb-ft range. If this combination could provide an MPG of 25+ mpg while towing, I could see an eager audience for such a configuration.

I am not categorically opposed to fuel cells, but I think EV charging infrastructure will build out exponentially faster than hydrogen infrastructure, to the point where the capabilities of HD pickups are close enough to that of ICE models that fuel cells will be effectively irrelevant.

My predictions could be totally off, and we could be surprised by a breakthrough technology that will give HD pickups an 800-1,000-mile range from packs that only weigh 1,500 pounds. That time may come in my lifetime, but likely well past retirement age.

(Main image courtesy Ford)