Popularity Problem: Can EVs Get Too Popular Too Fast?
[Dec. 21, 2019]
Electric cars currently only comprise about 2% of car sales in the U.S. In EV-loving California, that number is around 8%. For many years, the segment was dominated by two brands: Nissan and Tesla. Today, there are a few other competitors, and in the next five years, a virtual flood of new electric models are expected to hit the market. While EV enthusiasts are intimately familiar with the nuances of driving and living with the cars, such as time-of-use electricity rates, watt-hour per mile energy consumption, and the multitude of charging options, plug types, adapters, and even proper tire inflation, most Americans are relatively oblivious and ignorant about electric cars.
Installing an outlet for home charging is not difficult, but it is a step that new EV owners need to be aware of.
New models like the Mustang Mach-E, Audi e-tron, Mercedes-Benz EQC and others will soon give car buyers an unprecedented variety of new models to choose from. Buyers not familiar with the idiosyncrasies of these cars may test drive them, and be wowed by the silence and instantaneous torque during the test drive. Many of these buyers will be single-family homeowners, and will not be shocked or fazed by the need to spend a few hundred dollars installing 220/240V outlets in their garage, or getting a permanent home charger hardwired. But how many of those customers will live in condos or apartments with no provision for home charging?
In fact, what happens when they discover refueling is a matter of hours, not minutes, or they suddenly have to make a long-distance drive without having the time to plan ahead? Or, as we saw over the 2019 Thanksgiving holiday in California, what happens when there are too many EV owners (in this case, Tesla owners) all stopping to charge at the same time in the same place?
The nationwide charging infrastructure is expanding at an impressive rate. But it’s not expanding evenly, or necessarily in the places with the highest demand. Some charging stations go months at a time without being used while others are used multiple times a day. Prediction of high-use areas is getting better, but availability and distribution is still imperfect at best.
Will some of these “late-early” EV adopters get frustrated at the cars and the ownership experience because they jumped in without proper preparation, swearing off future EV purchases? Don’t laugh. It happened with a member of my extended family. Granted, it was a Fiat 500e, and her housing and work situation changed where charging was no longer logistically convenient. Regardless, it was a negative enough experience that it will be a long time before she considers another EV.
EV charging stations are plentiful in certain areas of the U.S., but despite that, road trips still require a certain amount of planning.
Some may consider it the height of elitism and arrogance to say that customers need to be “educated” on EV ownership, but the fact of the matter is that the charging and ownership experience is fundamentally different enough from internal combustion cars, and the charging infrastructure is still sparse and inconsistent enough that yes, EV ownership currently requires “education,” whether by the buyers educating themselves, or dealers orienting and familiarizing buyers with the new reality of living with an EV.
Will the charging infrastructure grow quickly and rationally enough to cover owners in urban and multi-family housing? The City of Los Angeles is making the logistically smart move of turning many of its street light poles into charging stations. How will these pole chargers hold up in urban areas, where vandalism and neglect (whether benign or deliberate) are real issues? Will RV parks see EV owners as nuisances or opportunities? It will truly be interesting to see how the EV ecosystem evolves in the coming years.
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