Outlook for EVs in the Trump Era and Beyond – A Mixed Bag
By Edward A. Sanchez — March 3, 2025
The second Trump administration is moving with a surprising ferocity (or recklessness, depending on your perspective) barely one month in. One of the likely casualties is the $7,500 purchase credit for qualifying EVs with enough domestic content, as well as a clawback of unspent NEVI funds allocated toward EV charging infrastructure.
While I’m ultimately in favor of the EV industry weaning itself off subsidies and governmental support, I would probably do a more orderly wind-down and phaseout than a sudden “rip off the bandage” approach. Regardless, in the near-term, the automotive industry, specifically in the U.S., faces an outlook much less hospitable to electrification.
But longer-term, I’m still optimistic about EVs. Despite all the anti-EV FUD being propagated by the MAGA faithful, development of the technology and charging infrastructure continues, even in the absence of government support. Admittedly, EVs are not the perfect solution for every transportation application with current technology.
The buildout of the Ionna network, a charging consortium comprised of several major car companies with a major presence in the U.S. market, is continuing, and reportedly did not factor in NEVI funding into its business plan – in hindsight, a shrewd calculation considering the prospects of a second Trump term. By most indications, Ionna is the best alternative to Tesla’s Supercharger network at providing a well-maintained, nationwide DC fast charging network. Insufficient and poorly-maintained charging infrastructure is frequently cited as one of the biggest reasons people decide against purchasing an EV.
Many automakers have taken a step back from an “all-in” approach on battery electrics, and are developing PHEV or EREV (range-extended) models to ease skeptical buyers into the world of EVs. This development is somewhat ironic considering the introduction of the Chevy Volt in 2011, and its cancellation in 2019. GM probably wishes it would have continued work on the Voltec concept, and had multiple plug-in models on the market, rather than having to start over.
Hindsight 20/20, PHEVs/EREVs probably should have come before the headlong rush into battery electrics. But in the 2018-’20 timeframe, Tesla was receiving all the attention and accolades, and a healthy dose of FOMO was gripping the rest of the industry.
I still believe full battery electric vehicles will ultimately be the majority of new car sales, but perhaps not as quickly as some think. And some specific segments will be best served with a range-extended powertrain for perhaps a decade or more to come, namely full-size trucks, and off-road SUVs. Part of this is perceptual, with those buyers being naturally skeptical of new technologies, but also practical, with real-world needs for longer range and quick refueling better served with internal combustion, at least as a supplemental solution.
There are numerous anecdotal stories of EV skeptics and doubters who are converted after a ride or drive, amazed by the instant, smooth, silent, seamless power deliver, low cost of operation, and (in some cases) surprise-and-delight of OTA software updates adding new capabilities and features on a regular basis. That will continue regardless of presidential administration.
So for EV fans despairing about the next four years, don’t. It will just be a temporary slowdown in the transportation electrification revolution.
(Image courtesy Ionna)
