Hindsight 20/20: Legacy Media Seems to be Missing the EV Megatrend
[Jan. 1, 2020]
I’ve been accused of being an EV fan-boy more than once. I am admittedly an enthusiastic admirer of the technology, but unlike some others in the EV webisphere, I’m clear-headed about the many headwinds and issues facing the technology and trends.
However, it seems some in the media, even outlets considered by most to be “progressive,” take a rather dim view of the prospects of EVs. The latest screed along those lines comes from Charles Lane of the Washington Post. In his latest piece, he says the following:
“Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks.”
Fair enough points. However, Lane seems fixated on what has been the status quo of EVs in the past. Like many other EV skeptics and detractors, he talks about the state of the EV market and technology like it’s a static, fixed state. The issues he brings up are real. However, companies around the world are currently working furiously to reduce prices and increase convenience.
The dig at “upper-income folks” reference is a fixation on Tesla. The high price could be reasonably leveled against the Roadster, Model S, and Model X, many of which sold for well into six figures. However, the starting price for the Model 3, at right around $40,000, is not that much higher than the U.S. average median new vehicle price of around $37,000, according to Kelley Blue Book. The Chevrolet Bolt, meanwhile, boasts an MSRP directly at that median. The case that EVs are playthings for the rich no longer holds much credibility for me.
An argument can be made for other Tesla models being for the wealthy, but the Model 3 dares to dip into the realm of affordability for many Americans.
Even Lane admits he underestimated the strength and persistence of Tesla:
“My biggest error, in hindsight, was to underestimate the financial staying power of Elon Musk’s cash-burning Tesla Motors, which I thought would exhaust investors’ patience long before it conquered the complexities of mass-producing quality vehicles. Tesla’s Model 3 is the most popular electric car on the market, with 111,000 sold in the first nine months of 2019. Owners swear by it.”
Tesla’s Gigafactories are being built at an impressive rate.
Nowhere in his missive does Lane acknowledge the record speed at which the Gigafactory 3 outside of Shanghai went from green field to manufacturing cars in less than 12 months, or the announcement of Gigafactory 4 outside of Berlin, which when up to speed will massively increase Tesla’s presence in the European market.
Also largely un-acknowledged by Lane is the large number of EV models to hit the market over the next five years. As of now, it’s a small oligopoly of long-range electric cars. That will not be the case within five years. EVs’ small market share up until now is largely attributable to only a small number of choices available, with very few in the popular crossover form factor. That will change dramatically in the next three model years.
With all due respect Mr. Lane, you’re missing the point here. If you’re playing the clever contrarian just for the likes and LOLs, enjoy it while you can. But if you persist in your skepticism of EVs in the face of the coming electric tsunami, get your life jacket ready.
(Images courtesy Tesla.)
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