GM’s PHEV Pivot – Too Little, Too Late?
By Edward A. Sanchez — Feb. 1, 2024
This past week, General Motors got a lot of headlines with its announcement that it will work on bringing new PHEV models to market in the face of weaker-than-anticipated demand for its BEV models. With the discontinuation of the Chevrolet Volt in 2019, it seemed GM’s strategy on electrification was fairly decisive. But markets can be a funny thing. Supply chain constraints, high prices, and negative media coverage of BEVs have conspired to cool many consumers on the idea of buying a full battery electric vehicle.
The question at this point is will GM be able to make up the lost time from 2019 until now, and the likely 2026-’27 timeframe when the new PHEVs will come to market? Battery technology as well as charging infrastructure are maturing quickly. While I don’t personally feel the charging infrastructure nationally will be at the tipping point where the majority of new vehicle sales will be BEVs until at least 2035, if not later, there’s a possibility that a breakthrough battery technology could come to market concurrently with GM’s new PHEV models that could render them, if not obsolete, at least less compelling than they would be otherwise.
Until public electric vehicle charging is so ubiquitous that the number of charging points is in the millions (it’s currently around 160,000-200,000), range anxiety will be a real concern for many buyers, whether perceived or real. Before I bought my Tesla Model 3 in 2019, I did extensive research on real-world range, hypothetical driving scenarios for my specific situation, and charging availability. Only once, when I unadvisedly skipped a Supercharger stop, did I have a real concern that I would be able to make it to my next stop. For full context, I live in coastal California, where charging points are relatively ubiquitous, at least compared to most of the rest of the U.S. I have traveled to. I know of other parts of the country where Level 3, and even Level 2, charging points are few and far between.
Strategically, I think GM’s best move for PHEVs from a product standpoint would be a mid-size crossover, approximately the size of the Equinox or Blazer, and application of PHEV technology to its full-size truck models, trying to bring a competitor to the Ramcharger to market as quickly as possible. Although nobody outside of Stellantis has yet driven the Ramcharger, conceptually, it received a very positive reception from both journalists and the truck community for enabling “real” truck tasks like towing and hauling, while mitigating the unavoidable issue of range degradation while towing, by throwing a generous-capacity 90 kWh battery pack, plus a 27-gallon fuel tank.
As an interesting aside, GM actually showed a concept version of a Volt crossover in 2010, dubbed the Volt MPV5 (shown at the top of this story). The concept was a prescient foresight of how popular the crossover segment would become. Sadly, this vehicle never made it to market. If it had, it might have been the difference between the Volt being a novelty loved and appreciated by a relatively small number of enthusiastic owners, and a mass-market hit.
GM indisputably has a wealth of PHEV knowledge from its development of two generations of the Volt, and can probably apply that knowledge quickly to a new vehicle program. The opportunity window for PHEVs is still open, but is narrowing as battery technology and charging infrastructure improve in parallel. If GM can keep the cost premium over its ICE models reasonable, and get them to market quicker than expected, it could be Wall Street’s hero, at least for a season. But if a 600+ mile BEV gets to market with quick charging, and dovetails into a significantly expanded charging infrastructure, public reception to the new PHEVs could end up being lukewarm.
(Image by General Motors)
