Electricity Absolutists – What’s Plan B?
By Edward A. Sanchez — March 17, 2023
The Law of Unintended Consequences, Murphy’s Law, S*** Hits the Fan, Black Swan, whatever you want to call it, unforeseen events can wreak havoc on even the best-intended plans. I recently experienced one of these myself this past week.
If you’ve followed the news over the past few months, you’ve probably noticed California has been hit with fierce wind and rainstorms that have caused historic flooding and infrastructure damage. I was fortunate enough to be at my mother’s house in Silicon Valley when my home neighborhood in the Monterey area was hit with a three-day power outage. At the time, it was the hardest-hit area in the state in terms of power outages.
It turns out that the power crisis in Monterey was but a preview of what was to come. The following week, approximately 300,000 households in the San Francisco Bay Area were without power. Electricity was gradually restored to most affected neighborhoods over the course of several days, including at my mom’s.
With an inoperable land line, malfunctioning cell phone, and no internet or power, I had no way of directly communicating with my mom. I managed to get in touch with one of her neighbors that checked in with her, and the following day with another neighbor that was fortunately spared from the outage situation.
I am not usually one to panic, but “worst case scenario” thoughts started going through my head. I topped off the charge on my Tesla Model 3 SR+ in Monterey and drove up to the Bay Area. I had plenty of charge to get up there, but the charging situation once I arrived was another story. I threw my Bluetti battery pack, solar panels, extension cords, propane heater, and 20 lb propane tank in my car, and drove up. A few of the normal routes were closed due to flooding, but I managed to find an unobstructed route.
Fortunately for my mom, she has a gas stove and a gas water heater, so we were at least able to take warm showers and heat whatever food we could salvage from the refrigerator. I set up the propane heater in her fireplace to warm the living area, and connected a few lamps to the Bluetti to give us a little light around the house.
If you’ve followed my posts here for any length of time, you’ll know I’m a wholehearted advocate of electrification. However, any absolutist approach to energy has its shortcomings and vulnerabilities, and that fact was starkly highlighted by this latest event.
California is intent to phase out gas water heaters and furnaces over the next few decades, effectively banning the installation of new units after 2030 and making only electric units available for replacement after that date. By most indications, the fervor against gas stoves has subsided somewhat, and there’s been no indication that a green militia squad will come into your house and rip out your old gas range and force you to install an induction range. However, the phase out of new sales may follow suit as with the water heaters and furnaces in due time. I am very thankful my mom had a gas water heater and stove, otherwise, the two days without power would have been much less comfortable.
The premise and promise of an all-electric future has to be based upon a rock-solid reliable power grid. This latest episode highlighted the fragility of the physical infrastructure of the grid, and how easily it can be disrupted by falling trees and other natural disasters. The primary utility serving Northern California, Pacific Gas & Electric, publicly says it’s on an aggressive campaign to underground as much of the power infrastructure as possible or practical. But this will be a multi-decade, multi-billion-dollar effort.
The only current effective mitigation against an event like this is the combination of solar and on-site battery storage, which can easily be a $35,000+ up-front expense. The other option is something like Ford’s Intelligent Backup Power system like on the F-150 Lightning. But the fact of the matter is, many consumers can’t afford either the solar-plus-battery backup or the Ford Lightning. Some may be able to afford a small emergency power station like my Bluetti, but power stations with less than a 1,500 watt capacity aren’t able to power full size refrigerators or other household appliances like microwaves, electric ranges, or even toaster ovens.
Perhaps natural gas is not as “clean” as renewable electricity. But in a SHTF (s*** hits the fan) situation, it’s a vital and potentially lifesaving fallback in an emergency situation.
Again, I am not altogether against the “electrify everything” movement. But its proponents need to address the elephant in the room that its critics rightfully bring up: What are people supposed to do when there’s a prolonged grid failure? Just suck it up and be happy that they’re saving the environment? Grid hardening, reliability, and mitigation measures need to be put in place to assure rapid restoration of service, smart triage solutions to bring generation or distribution capacity back online, or even localized microgrids with battery storage to ensure that people’s lives aren’t endangered by a prolonged outage.
(Image courtesy NASA)
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