Could EVs Lead to the Premature Death of Smog Testing?

By Phil Royle — Feb. 3, 2023

There are a plethora of reasons to purchase an EV. From environmental to maintenance and operational cost advantages, a logical evaluation of the pros and cons of ICE and EV ownership has led to an increasing number of buyers entering the EV camp. Yet as time passes – at least here in California, and in other states with similar emissions requirements – a giant unknown looms that could expedite EV adoption even more: smog testing. But not in the way you might think.

Smog testing is old hat in my neck of the woods. In California, where I live, smog testing was introduced in 1966 and has grown in its reach, with exceptions and complicating details entering the fray through the years. Let me walk you through a spider’s web: I tow with a two-wheel-drive 1999 Ford F-250 V-10, and every two years the truck has to be placed on a roller dyno with a tailpipe “sniffer” for emissions testing. Full-time four-wheel-drive vehicles are not placed on a roller dyno with a tailpipe sniffer, and as of 2010 with the passing of AB 2289, model years 2000 and newer are no longer required to have tailpipe emissions sniffed on a roller dyno during a smog check – instead, the inspection involves a physical check of emissions equipment, plus connecting a computer to the vehicle’s OBD-II port.

If my Ford were a 2000 model year with the same V-10 motor, my truck’s annual inspection would involve an OBD-II check and no tailpipe sniffer on a rolling dyno. Similarly, if my truck were four-wheel-drive, the emissions inspection wouldn’t involve a roller dyno. In weirdness of all weirdness, because 1998 and older consumer diesel pickups are emissions exempt in California, and 2000 and newer vehicles are exempt from the rolling dyno tailpipe test, a two-wheel-drive 1999 Ford F-250 with the 7.3L diesel gets sniffed during the emissions test, while the same year four-wheel-drive version does not; meanwhile, 1998 and 2000 models of the same diesel truck with the same motor – regardless of drive type – are exempt from the tailpipe sniffer.

Furthermore, at least in my city, smog stations are slowly going out of business, with few new ones being opened, making annual smog inspections increasingly difficult to obtain.

California – am I right?

Before bagging on my left-wing state, consider the good that has come from emissions testing. California led the world in introducing the cleanest emissions vehicles and fuel, exponentially improving air quality across the board and proving something could be done to improve living conditions. In the 1950s, “smog events” were relatively commonplace in the Los Angeles basin, with records showing outdoor activities like school athletics having to be cancelled due to poor air quality – street photography from that era shows people covering their mouths with cloth due to the high smog levels. When I moved to Los Angeles in the late 1990s, smog was visible on many days; today, it’s a comparative a non-issue. In contrast, a recent flight connection through Dallas, Texas, had me staring at a sky filled with what appears to be increasing levels of smog. (Interestingly, Texas only has OBD-II-based emissions tests in four areas of its state, Dallas being one of them.)

Despite all of the irrefutable good that’s come from California’s strict emissions standards, consumer vehicle smog testing in California will eventually come to an end, and my guess is this could happen as early as 2040 – maybe even 2035. Ironically, it’s California’s recent mandate to eliminate new ICE vehicle sales by 2035 that I believe marked an accelerated beginning of the end for ICE vehicle emissions testing.

California has worked hard since 1966 to give cities like Los Angeles its skyline back. Should EV adoption inadvertently end consumer vehicle smog testing while ICE vehicles are still on the road, will the poisonous haze return? (Photo courtesy Josh Miller)

It’s not like new EV sales will be 10% in 2034 in California, then 100% in 2035; expect new car EV sales to be in the 80-90% range years before the mandate takes effect. The proof is in the pudding – and the “pudding,” in this case, is that new EV vehicle sales in California in 2022 is already 17-18% – 13 years before the EV sales mandate takes hold.

Taking into consideration that most vehicles have a lifespan of 12 years, Californians who purchased a new vehicle in the last few years may have already purchased their last new ICE vehicle. I suspect by 2030, an overwhelming majority of Californians will be buying EVs.

Considering that smog stations are independently owned, it quickly becomes apparent that the smog station biz will die out due to a lack of customers as this transition takes place. Fewer smog stations will lead to a worse ICE ownership experience, and that in turn will fuel increased EV adoption. Once there are few smog stations for the ICE driving public to access, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) will have no choice but to eliminate smog checks for all ICE vehicles.

And I’m all for it.

No, this EV-induced no-smog-check side effect while ICE vehicles are still being driven by the public will not bring upon the next apocalypse. If CARB drops all smog requirements in ICE vehicles once a certain EV sales threshold is reached, LA will not dive back into the rank, poisonous depths of the 1950s. The fact is that vehicle emissions are far reduced from what they were 70 years ago, and with fewer and fewer ICE vehicles on the road at that time, the environmental impact of the remaining tailpipe polluters will be minimal.

When will ICE vehicle smog testing come to an end in California, leading the charge for other states to also abandon their existing vehicle emissions testing? 2040? 2035? Nobody knows, but the answer is probably: Sooner than you think.

(Main image by Phil Royle)

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