California Governor Gavin Newsom Bans New ICE Car Sales by 2035
[Sept. 24, 2020]
Somewhat unexpectedly to many, Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Sept. 23, 2020, banning the sale of new internal-combustion passenger cars by 2035. Governor Newsom cited the global climate crisis, as well as one of the worst fire seasons in the state’s history as rationale for implementing the order. Executive Order N-79-20 makes provisions for multiple state agencies to develop a zero-emissions vehicle market development strategy by Jan. 31, 2021, and a develop a roadmap by July 15, 2021, pursuant to Assembly Bill 398 passed in 2017.
In the press conference, Newsom specifically called out and commended Bill Ford and Ford Motor Company, acknowledging them as “a leader in this space, not a laggard.” While some may quibble Ford’s “leadership” in the EV space, Ford definitely capitalized on the opportunity by providing a Mustang Mach-E prototype for the governor to sign the executive order on its hood.
During the press conference, Ford was applauded by California’s governor for helping lead the way for electrified vehicles. Ford currently has no EVs for sale, although the Mach-E is slated to hit dealerships later in 2020. (Image courtesy Ford)
Having come from the world of automotive enthusiast media, I obviously still have a lot of friends and former co-workers that don’t look at this development favorably. Many of them retreated to clichéd anecdotes about how driving an old car was “greener” than buying a new one, and how they were going to hold on to their old big-block V-8 for decades to come. To be clear, this executive order says nothing about confiscation or scrappage of classic or older vehicles. It only applies to new vehicle sales after 2035. That’s not to say that environmental activists may not next turn their sights to older vehicles, but that’s a separate topic.
I honestly feel this may be much ado about nothing. Just as 15 years ago, nobody owned, or had heard of (aside from a small cadre of Apple employees) the iPhone, 15 years from now, electric cars may be as commonplace and mainstream as smartphones are today. Admittedly, the analogy between smartphones and EVs is not a perfect one, and a $300-600 mobile device is a lot more attainable than a $30,000+ vehicle.
As of right now, the choices of EVs are somewhat limited, rather expensive compared to conventional internal-combustion equivalents, and not available in some of the most popular vehicle styles. A phalanx of EV trucks is about to enter the market in 2022-’23 from both upstart and established automakers. Around the same timeframe, multiple models in various body styles are poised to be introduced by GM, Nissan, Volkswagen, and others.
However, the path to zero emissions in California is not without its speed bumps. The series of rolling blackouts in the summer of 2020, while the state is simultaneously racing toward its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, has put a stark spotlight on the intermittency of renewable power. There needs to be a dramatic increase in energy storage capacity to be able to take full advantage of solar and wind power.
Although some would say it’s conveniently ignored by boosters of EVs, electric utilities such as PG&E and Southern California Edison need to commit more resources to maintenance and upkeep of their power distribution networks, to prevent fires caused by aging and faulty utility infrastructure. A future in which a significant portion, and eventually the majority of cars on the state’s roads are powered by electricity will put unprecedented demand on the power grid, and an issue which the state’s utilities need to get in front of.
Is there a chance this order could be rescinded or overturned? Certainly. If Newsom is recalled, replaced, or incredulously, the state elects a conservative Republican governor, the goals and objectives spelled out in N-79-20 could be for naught. But chances are Newsom’s elected successor will also be a progressive Democrat, and will wholeheartedly back the principles and objectives of the order. Unless there’s a massive influx of conservatives from out-of-state, or the net migration of U-Hauls changes from outbound to inbound, chances are N-79-20 is here to stay.
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