2021 EV Predictions: What’s Going to Happen in the Next 365 Days
By Phil Royle – Jan. 1, 2021
2021, you hope, will be better than 2020. That said, in the world of automotive electrification, 2020 was a spectacular year, with exciting battery announcements from Tesla, Lucid Motors revealing its luxury EV sedan spouting 500 miles of range and a 900-volt architecture, Hyundai hinting at the underpinnings of its E-GMP platform, plus Toyota and Mazda hinting at their upcoming EV game. Jeep’s Unlimited 4xe hybrid was an exciting release, and Ford finished 2020 off strong not only with customers taking delivery of the controversially named Mustang Mach-E, but also with an announcement that it will produce an electric E-Transit van. Heck, California even made a power move by banning the sale of ICE cars by 2035. Pandemic aside, 2020 was neat.
But now it’s 2021. And since no one knows what the New Year holds, let’s make predictions with very little facts to back them up...
High voltage
2021 will be a high voltage year. EV 800-volt architecture will become the standard to which all EVs are measured – especially considering this ultimately can be measured by rapid charge time. Porsche brought the technology to reality with its Taycan in 2019 and Audi will release its 800-volt e-tron GT in 2021, but more significant is that Hyundai is making the 800 volt move with its Ioniq EV lineup – that will make it mainstream. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Toyota – and thus Mazda via its corporate partnership with Toyota – follow suit.
Boasting an 80% recharge of its 90+kWh battery in 20 minutes, Audi’s forthcoming e-tron GT illustrates why 800-volt EV architectures should be the EV standard. (Image courtesy Audi)
In addition, EV pickups will have to utilize a high voltage architecture if their massive batteries are to recharge in an acceptable amount of time. We know the Hummer EV will ride on an 800-volt system, and while little is known about the voltage of the F-150 Electric, it’s already rumored that Rivian will transition its R1T to 800 or 900 volts.
Charging infrastructure will improve, but not fast enough
Unfortunately, 2021 will not be the year that EV charging stations upgrade to accommodate 800-volt EVs. Luckily, they won’t need to for a few years. Let’s worry about that later.
Meanwhile, EV charging infrastructure will continue to expand on its mission to overtake gas, but come Thanksgiving 2021, America will again witness lines at Tesla Superchargers. It will, once more, set back EV adoption.
Toyota will wow
Toyota, the original hybrid frontrunner and longtime EV laggard, will wow the world with technology that’s further along in development than we anticipated. Toyota is conservative, but like all auto manufacturers, the company is tight lipped. 2021 will be the year that Toyota shows its hand, and it will likely be impressive.
Mazda, meanwhile, will continue to appear to lag in EV development, but Toyota’s announcements will allow Mazda to ride its coattails through their partnership.
The Apple car?
Rumors are circulating, but don’t get your hopes up. Apple’s car will either not materialize in 2021, or it will do so in the form of something other than a fully functional vehicle. Think Sony’s Vision-S EV concept from 2020 CES.
EV mandates from on high
President Joe Biden’s administration, along with Pete Buttigieg as Secretary of Transportation and John Kerry as the administration’s climate czar, will likely push for a nationwide new-car EV mandate. I predict the administration will consider aligning the country with California’s executive order to eliminate the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2035.
There will be pushback, of course, so deals will be struck, and perhaps the country will go the route Japan is choosing by requiring hybrids by a certain date before pulling the trigger on full EVs.
Ultimately, though, 2021 will be the year the ball got rolling.
Tesla
The Semi and Roadster will be “coming soon.”
Nikola
Nikola will essentially fold, but hydrogen will push forward in heavy equipment like Class 8 trucks. The current CEO or CTO of Nikola will launch a new company, potentially announcing a partnership with GM.
Trevor Milton will attempt a comeback. And fail.
Like the design of Nikola’s trucks? You’ll likely see them again when a new company is formed. (Image courtesy Nikola)
Bestselling EV of 2021?
The Tesla Model Y. But the Ford Mustang Mach-E will sell so well that it wouldn’t surprise me to see GM reveal plans for the Camaro to return as a crossover EV in the coming years.
EVs will begin to become “normal”
Electric delivery vehicles and electrified garbage trucks will hit the streets in large quantity in certain areas. While this will reduce pollution and save money for those companies, it will have the side effect of largely normalizing EVs in the public eye. People will ask delivery drivers and plumbers how they like their EVs, and people will also see how quiet a garbage truck can be when electric. This won’t lead to massive EV sales – yet. But normalizing EVs in the mind of the general public is vital for eventual large-scale EV adoption.
(Main image courtesy Ford)
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